Indus Water Treaty Suspended- Will Pakistan Face a Food Crisis?

Indus Water Treaty Explained: Will Pakistan Face a Water and Food Shortage?

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT), signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi, was a landmark water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank. It governs the allocation and use of the Indus River system, a critical resource for both nations, originating in Tibet and flowing through India and Pakistan.

This treaty is one of the most successful transboundary water-sharing agreements globally, surviving decades of conflict, including four India-Pakistan wars and ongoing geopolitical tensions created mainly by Pakistan. 

However, its suspension by India on April 23, 2025, following the Pahalgam terrorist attack, marks a significant shift in India-Pakistan relations, with far-reaching implications for both countries.

Indus Water Treaty Meaning :

The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is a water-distribution agreement designed to manage the waters of the Indus River system, which includes six major rivers: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab (Western Rivers) and Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (Eastern Rivers). 

Indus Water Treaty Main Points

Division of Rivers:

Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej): Allocated to India for unrestricted use, contributing approximately 20% (41 billion cubic meters) of the total water flow.

Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab): Allocated to Pakistan for primary use, contributing 80% (99 billion cubic meters) of the total water flow. India is allowed limited non-consumptive uses, such as irrigation, domestic use, and run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects, subject to strict design and operational constraints.

Permanent Indus Water Commission (PIC):

A bilateral body with representatives from both countries to facilitate cooperation, exchange data, and resolve disputes. The PIC meets annually to ensure compliance.


Three-Tier Dispute Resolution Mechanism:

Step 1: Disputes are addressed by the PIC.

Step 2: Unresolved issues are referred to a Neutral Expert appointed by the World Bank.

Step 3: If disputes persist, they can be escalated to a Court of Arbitration.

No Exit Clause:

The treaty lacks a provision for unilateral suspension or termination. Any modification requires mutual consent under Article XII(3).


Indus Water Treaty: Obligations for Cooperation

Both countries must share data on water flows and project designs.

India must ensure the unrestricted flow of Western Rivers to Pakistan, except for permitted uses.

Both nations are obligated to avoid causing material damage to the other through flood control or water management projects.

Financial Arrangements:

The treaty was accompanied by the Indus Basin Development Fund Agreement, with contributions from countries like Australia, Canada, and the United States to help Pakistan develop canal systems to replace water lost from the Eastern Rivers.

Indus Water Treaty - For UPSC 

Historical Context and Significance:

The partition of British India in 1947 created a contentious issue over the Indus River system, as the rivers flowed through both India (upstream) and Pakistan (downstream). 

In 1948, India briefly halted water flow to Pakistan, prompting Pakistan to seek UN intervention. The World Bank mediated negotiations from 1952 to 1960, culminating in the IWT, signed by Jawaharlal Nehru (India) and Ayub Khan (Pakistan). The Indus Water treaty was hailed as a model of cooperation, with former U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower calling it a "bright spot" in global diplomacy.

The IWT’s resilience is notable, having withstood three wars (1965, 1971, 1999), cross-border terrorism, and diplomatic tensions. It ensured water security for Pakistan’s agriculture and India’s hydropower development while fostering a framework for dialogue through the PIC.

Indus Water Treaty: 

Impact on India

Positive Impacts-

Control Over Eastern Rivers:

India gained unrestricted access to the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers, supporting irrigation and hydropower in states like Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

Projects like the Bhakra-Nangal Dam have been critical for India’s agricultural and energy needs.

Hydropower Development:

The treaty allows India to develop run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on Western Rivers, such as the Kishanganga and Ratle projects, enhancing clean energy production.

Strategic Leverage:

As the upstream nation, India holds a hydrological advantage, which has become a diplomatic tool, especially after the treaty’s suspension.
Challenges.

Negative Aspects:

Economic Losses in Jammu & Kashmir:

Restrictions on storage and irrigation projects on Western Rivers have led to economic losses in Jammu & Kashmir, estimated at hundreds of millions annually, according to local government reports.

Disputes with Pakistan:

Pakistan’s objections to India’s hydroelectric projects (e.g., Kishanganga, Ratle) have led to prolonged disputes, delaying projects and increasing costs.

Infrastructure Limitations:

India lacks sufficient infrastructure to fully utilize its share of Eastern Rivers or divert Western Rivers, limiting the immediate impact of the treaty’s suspension.

Impact on Pakistan:-

Water Security:

Pakistan receives 80% of the Indus system’s water, critical for irrigating 80% of its cultivated land in Punjab and Sindh. The Indus basin contributes 154.3 million acre-feet annually, supporting 23% of Pakistan’s GDP and 68% of its rural population.

Agricultural Backbone:

The Western Rivers are vital for food security, with 93% of Pakistan’s water used for irrigation, supporting crops like wheat, rice, and cotton.

Pakistan’s Agricultural Crisis

Dependence on Indus River system: The Indus system irrigates 80% of Pakistan’s farmland, contributing 21-25% to GDP and supporting 45% of its workforce.

Urban Water Supply:

Water Shortages: Major cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Multan rely on the Indus system for drinking water and industrial use.

Pakistan reported a 21% water shortage for the Kharif season due to reduced Chenab flows.

Challenges:

Dependence on India-

As a lower riparian state, Pakistan is vulnerable to India’s upstream actions, especially after the treaty’s suspension.

Environmental and Infrastructure Issues:

Pakistan faces groundwater depletion, soil salinity, and inadequate water storage infrastructure, exacerbating its vulnerability to water flow disruptions.

Climate Change: Glacial melt in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region increases short-term water availability but risks long-term scarcity.

Data Sharing Halt: India’s suspension of data sharing disrupts Pakistan’s ability to manage floods and droughts, exacerbating climate vulnerabilities.

Siltation Risks: India’s unannounced reservoir flushing (e.g., Baglihar Dam) could damage Pakistan’s downstream agriculture by releasing silt.

Economic Risks: Life and Death Issues

Any reduction in water flow could lead to lower crop yields, food scarcity, and economic instability, given agriculture’s significant contribution to Pakistan’s economy.

 

Can India Legally Suspend the Treaty? 

Technically No, but Practically "Yes"

The IWT lacks an exit clause, and unilateral suspension is not explicitly allowed.

Legal perspectives include:

India’s Argument: India cites the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT), claiming a “fundamental change in circumstances” (climate change, population growth) and Pakistan’s alleged treaty breaches via terrorism.

Pakistan’s View: The suspension violates international law, as the treaty requires mutual agreement for modification. Pakistan may challenge it legally.

World Bank’s Stance: The World Bank, a treaty signatory, has limited authority and will not intervene beyond facilitation.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Implications

Short-Term: India’s limited infrastructure means immediate water flow disruptions are minimal, but halted data sharing creates uncertainty for Pakistan.

Long-Term: India could build storage infrastructure, reducing Pakistan’s water share, but this risks escalating conflict and environmental harm.

How to Mitigate the Crisis?

To restore stability and sustainability:

Of course, the Indus Water Treaty suspension was initiated by India, but practically, Pakistan itself triggered India to suspend it.

Resume Dialogue: Both nations should revive the Permanent Indus Commission to address disputes and restore data sharing.

Involve Neutral Mediators: The World Bank or international experts could facilitate talks to depoliticize water issues.

Address Climate Change: Joint efforts to manage glacial melt and water scarcity could benefit both countries.

Avoid Unilateral Actions: India should reconsider the suspension to maintain its global reputation, while Pakistan should address India’s security concerns.

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty marks a critical juncture in Indo-Pak relations, escalating tensions and threatening sustainability in the Indus Basin. 

Will China Disrupt Indian Interest in IWT?

Definitely yes, sooner or later

China’s Strategic Interests:

China has significant investments in Pakistan, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which includes hydroelectric projects like the Indus Cascade dams. Access to Pakistan’s water resources is critical for these projects and for China’s broader industrial ambitions, including its semiconductor industry, which requires substantial freshwater.

China’s upstream position on the Brahmaputra River (Yarlung Tsangpo) and parts of the Indus (originating in Tibet) gives it leverage over India’s water security. India relies on the Brahmaputra for approximately 30% of its freshwater and 44% of its hydropower potential.

China’s “all-weather friendship” with Pakistan: Although China is a friend of Pakistan but in reality, for its Sole economic Interests or just to counter India in this reagion, could prompt it to counter India’s actions on the IWT to bolster its regional influence and secure Pakistan as a strategic ally against India.

While India Aims to pressure Pakistan over terrorism, the move risks Pakistan’s agriculture, regional stability, and long-term water security. 

Pakistan must prioritize diplomacy and cooperation instead of regional terrorism in neighboring countries to prevent a water crisis and ensure the treaty’s legacy as a model of transboundary water management endures.